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October 5, 2010

I AM THE WORST RANKER EVER!

OK, I'm not an expert! But I wanted to see how bad my rankings really were. So, I came up with a system. I would take my rankings verse the order players actually finished for the week (on ESPN standard scoring, and I would just take them in order. If both players ended up with the same points I would just take them in the order they appeared on ESPN), add up my totals, divide by the number of players ranked and come up with an average. That average would be how many picks off I was on each player. Now, I only ranked 25 QBs, 50 RBs and WRs and 20 TEs. Anyone that was in the Top 25, 20 or 50 of their position that I didn't rank, I also added how many spots I was off. For example, Davone Bess was not ranked by me, but he finished as the 5th best WR, so I took 51 (the next ranked position) - 5 (his ranking) and added 46 points to my total. I know this doesn't make any sense, but THE NUMBERS ARE SHOCKING! Either I am really bad, or it really is impossible to predict this stuff!
QUARTERBACKS
Total Points = 248 Average spots off for each QB = 9.9
Do you get this? That means that, on the average, I was 10 spots away from where a player finished for the week and where I ranked him. Donovan McNabb is a great example. I had him ranked 9 and he finished 19 = +10 points for me. I will give myself credit for Joe Flacco and Vince Young - had them almost perfect. And I didn't have Michael Vick as a starter (knew he'd get injured, yeah right!) But, boy was I wrong on Jay Cutler (who wasn't!), Shaun Hill, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eli Manning.
RUNNING BACKS
Total Points = 836 Average spots off for each RB = 16.72

Again, people like Mike Tolbert, Brandon Jacobs, Brian Leonard and Marcel Reese (who the heck is Marcel Reese....and how does he finish ahead of Chris Johnson?) really throw off the average. Also,Matt Forte and Ray Rice doing absolutely nothing doesn't help. But, if you look at my rankings for DeAngelo Williams, Willis McGahee, and Jason Snelling - dead on! Yeah, I had a feeling! My one big miss was Brandon Jackson - a 22 spot difference. See ya Brandon!
WIDE RECEIVERS
Total points = 1502, it's not a typo! Average spots off for each WR = 30.4

What we're really saying is this: It's a crapshoot! On the average, I'm 30 points off. That's not in the ballpark. Again, I'm not expert, but I bet none of them had Davone Bess, Harry Douglas, Brandon Gibson, TJ Houz, Danny Woodhead, Steve Johnson, Brandon Tate or Kenny Brit anywhere near their Top 20! I would love to give you all the guys I was close on, but there aren't any. OK, Reggie Wayne, I was only one spot off. And Mark Clayton, missed him by 2.
TIGHT ENDS
Total points = 165 Average spots off for each TE = 8.25

Tight Ends are a little more predictable, but still I'm way off again. However, in the Top 6 I ranked, only Jermichael Finley was more than 3 spots away for their actual finish. Brandon Pettigrew, I way underrated, and Aaron Hernandez, I was overrated!
Do you get this? These rankings people do are overrated! Again, I'm no expert, but if you did this with every experts rankings, I bet you'd find the same thing. YOU CAN'T PREDICT THIS STUFF! YOU CAN'T EVEN COME CLOSE! So, it ends up being a little bit like life - YOU DO THE RESEARCH, FIND OUT WHO YOU LIKE, AND THEN GO FOR IT! Don't let someone else tell you what to do - with fantasy football or with life. Keep listening to God, and even if it doesn't make sense to others, go with the whisper!
Next week, here's what I'm gonna do. I'll put all the starting QBs in a hat, pull them out one by one and see if I have better ranks. Same with the Top 60 RBs and two WRs from every team (except for like the Broncos), and 20 TE's. Got a feeling that my hat picks are better than my real picks! We'll see...and ROCK ON!

3 comments:

  1. I've got four running backs that have to fit into three spots this weekend:
    Cedric Benson
    MJD
    Michael Bush
    Matt Forte

    What should I do?

    ReplyDelete
  2. When in doubt, sit the Bear!!! MJD is going to tear up Buffalo, It looks like Michael Bush is going to get all the carries on a team that has run the ball very well so far (and by the way, can hold on to the ball with either hand now - a definite advantage), and when the Bengals finally realize that they made the play-offs last year by handing off to CedBen all the time, he's going to score. Maybe that's this week!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Eric,
    Sorry! I turned on the Bears game in the second quarter and heard that Forte had already rushed for 100 yards and thought, "Ooooops!" Hope those other guys were enough for you to win!

    ReplyDelete